September 2025: When Economic Weakness Met Market Strength - Personal Lessons for Q4
Monday evening in Brooklyn brings the kind of reflection that only month-end transitions allow. As I review September's market action against the backdrop of weakening economic data, I'm reminded once again why investment success depends more on adapting to reality than predicting outcomes. September 2025 will be remembered as the month when markets decisively broke historical patterns. Over the past five years, September averaged losses of 4.2%, yet this year delivered approximately 3% gains for major equity indices. This divergence between historical expectations and actual results encapsulates everything I've learned about humility in investing. The Federal Reserve's Cautious Beginning September 17th marked a significant milestone when the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, reducing the federal funds rate to the 4.00-4.25% range. Having followed Fed policy closely since my investment recovery began, I found Chairman Powell's characterization partic...