What This Weekend's $19B Crypto Liquidation Taught Me About Fear and Discipline

 

I woke up Saturday morning to my phone buzzing with price alerts. Bitcoin had dropped below $110,000. Then $105,000. By the time I got to my laptop, it had touched $102,000.

Ethereum was even worse—down from $4,783 to $3,400 in what felt like minutes.

This wasn't just a correction. This was the largest liquidation event in cryptocurrency history: $19.3 billion cleared, 1.6 million traders wiped out, nearly $1 trillion in market cap evaporated within three hours.

As I write this on Monday morning, Bitcoin sits at $115,361. Ethereum at $4,161. The Fear and Greed Index has plunged from 64 (Greed) to 27 (Extreme Fear) in less than 72 hours.

And I need to be honest about something: even after years of trading, this weekend tested me.

The Emotional Trap

When markets move this violently, every instinct screams at you to do something. Sell before it gets worse. Buy the dip before you miss it. Check prices every five minutes. Read every tweet. React, react, react.

I've learned—the hard way, through a $66,200 loss in 2018-2020—that this is exactly when I need to slow down, not speed up.

Professor Hoffman has a principle I've written in my trading journal: "The market's job is to shake out as many people as possible before its next major move. Your job is to decide if the fundamentals changed, or just the price."

So on Saturday, instead of panic-trading, I made coffee and asked myself that question.

What Actually Changed?

The price changed dramatically. That's obvious.

But what about the fundamentals?

Institutional adoption: Still accelerating. BlackRock's IBIT holds 800,000 Bitcoin—3.8% of total supply. Morgan Stanley is guiding 16,000 financial advisors to support crypto allocation. Standard & Poor's just launched its first crypto index.

Technical structure: Bitcoin held above $100,000—the 50-week moving average and a critical support level. Ethereum stayed above $4,000 after initial panic. These aren't bear market levels.

Market structure: Yes, $65 billion in open interest was wiped out. But excessive leverage needed to be cleared. Markets that reset often rally stronger.

Upcoming catalysts: Between October 18-25, six XRP ETF decisions are coming. The Fed meeting on October 28-29 is still expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut. CPI data drops October 24th.

The fundamentals? Still largely intact.

The price just moved violently to clear out overleveraged positions.

This Week Changes Everything

Despite the weekend chaos, we're entering one of the most important weeks of 2025 for crypto.

Starting Friday, October 18th, the SEC will begin issuing decisions on six major XRP spot ETF applications over the next seven days. Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, and others are all awaiting final rulings.

It's worth noting that REX-OSPREY's XRP ETF already launched successfully on September 18th under ticker XRPR. But these upcoming approvals could dramatically expand institutional access.

Meanwhile, delayed economic data—CPI on October 24th, the Fed meeting October 28-29—will provide crucial macro context.

The next seven to ten days will likely determine whether this weekend was a massive shakeout before the next leg up, or the early stage of a deeper correction.

My Framework During Extreme Volatility

I'm not going to pretend I have all the answers. But here's how I'm thinking through this moment:

What I'm doing: Holding my core Bitcoin and Ethereum positions. I'm not selling into extreme fear when support levels held. I'm watching $110,000 on Bitcoin and $4,000 on Ethereum—if those break decisively, I'll reassess.

I'm keeping 20% cash available. If we get another leg down, I want the ability to add without selling existing positions.

What I'm not doing: Adding leverage. Making decisions based on Twitter panic. Checking prices every hour. Forgetting that markets can always go lower than you expect.

What would change my mind: Bitcoin breaking below $100,000 on high volume. Ethereum losing $3,500. Weekly ETF outflows exceeding $2 billion. These would signal something more serious than a leverage flush.

None of these have happened yet.

The Discipline Test

Markets don't just test your capital—they test your psychology.

This weekend wasn't just about whether you had stop losses in place. It was about whether you could stick to your process when everything felt like it was falling apart.

I've learned that the best investors aren't those who never face drawdowns. They're the ones who can stay rational during them.

The price changed violently. My discipline didn't.

That's what separates surviving market volatility from being destroyed by it.

What Happens Next

I honestly don't know if we've seen the bottom. Markets don't send engraved invitations to major turning points.

But I do know this: the next seven to ten days—XRP ETF decisions, CPI data, the Fed meeting—will provide crucial information about where we go from here.

I'm staying focused on data, not emotion. On process, not prediction. On discipline, not hope.

Because in markets like these, that's all you can control.

Learn more: https://www.venisonamerica.com/

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